Ep. 367: What if AI Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This?

In the years since ChatGPT's astonishing launch, it's been hard not to get swept up in feelings of euphoria or dread about the looming impacts of this new type of artificial intelligence. But in recent weeks, this vibe seems to be shifting. Both the media and technologists no longer seem so certain that everything is about to change. Now how is this possible? What went wrong?

What should we really expect from this tech in the next few years? I'm Cal Newport and this is Deep Questions. Today's episode, what if AI doesn't get much better than this? Part 1, The Week We Woke Up. Dario, you've said that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and spike unemployment to 10 to 20 percent.

How soon might that happen? Well, let's uh uh uh well first of all, thanks for having me on the show. But uh uh just to back up a little bit, you know, I've been building AI for over a decade, and I think maybe the most salient feature of the technology and what is driving all of this is how fast the technology is getting better. Um, a couple of years ago, you could say that AI models were maybe as good as a smart high school student. I would say that now they're as good as a smart college student and and and sort of reaching past that.

We already have this episode, so unlocking it is cheap and permanent: the full transcript (97 minutes, 19,280 words), segment and word-level timestamps, and .txt, .srt, .vtt and word-level JSON downloads, as many times as you like, forever.

No account needed, we create one from your checkout email. With credits it is 1 credit; packs start at 10 episodes for $5, and monthly plans are cheaper still.